Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 28.985139 31.206777 33.609480 36.417826 39.631986 43.222453 47.574860
2025-04-20 26.237213 29.319511 32.871135 37.329486 42.871274 49.669592 58.871065
2025-04-27 24.137199 27.622389 31.808046 37.324972 44.602293 54.191622 68.402640
2025-05-04 23.253354 27.174347 32.061224 38.800295 48.214807 61.556418 83.380140
2025-05-11 22.050362 26.162066 31.427877 38.941708 49.920927 66.436644 95.894102
2025-05-18 21.349267 25.702707 31.427786 39.880338 52.816922 73.568474 114.452169
2025-05-25 20.167690 24.504940 30.305836 39.062396 52.885600 76.070242 125.222793
2025-06-01 18.753650 22.902041 28.502169 37.060856 50.810945 74.478116 126.931329
2025-06-08 17.814443 21.891712 27.460005 36.103622 50.304932 75.588123 135.088043
2025-06-15 17.318127 21.459019 27.202233 36.306835 51.733793 80.542146 154.674944
2025-06-22 16.780541 20.935932 26.773802 36.194101 52.584982 84.518039 173.911611
2025-06-29 16.019969 20.061055 25.778004 35.093143 51.541338 84.366047 180.975036
2025-07-06 15.034900 18.912640 24.445473 33.569235 49.978167 83.741441 189.924950
2025-07-13 14.709046 18.703868 24.522188 34.402157 53.006868 94.453227 251.755115
2025-07-20 14.216560 18.218550 24.134762 34.400465 54.416880 101.917775 315.463908
2025-07-27 14.056358 18.208240 24.475154 35.689321 58.701222 118.927743 487.863783
2025-08-03 13.664151 17.823896 24.188497 35.812637 60.513819 129.911870 689.525622
2025-08-10 13.440434 17.680366 24.275805 36.630124 64.075307 148.900937 1254.314614
2025-08-17 12.947715 17.096437 23.598114 35.917843 63.857848 154.332848 1761.476749
2025-08-24 12.298885 16.244890 22.432784 34.169463 60.834514 147.533721 1735.399813
2025-08-31 11.854569 15.697461 21.753757 33.330549 60.007192 149.642758 2307.469225
2025-09-07 11.619708 15.468098 21.597185 33.508794 61.809602 164.174365 6262.957622
2025-09-14 11.352205 15.175559 21.316011 33.409921 62.874219 176.418880 45814.375058